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Analyst: 2008 May Be Radio's Worst Year Since '54
NEW YORK -- November 24, 2008: CL King & Associates analyst says in a "Radio Overview" report that the last time radio saw such a deep and discouraging falloff in revenue, The Lone Ranger was wrapping up its radio run and Eisenhower was president.
Boyle writes, "With October revenue down 10 percent and off 7 percent year to date, radio is headed for the worst year since 1954 at down 9 percent." He says the trend is "unfortunately, not surprising, given the economy and major advertisers' struggles" and points to "a continuous string of almost uninterrupted high-single-digit to double-digit declines since March of 2008."
Revenue fell 7 percent in 2001, but, Boyle notes, that was compared to a 12 percent increase in 2000.
October was the 18th consecutive month of down revenue and 2008 is the eighth straight down year. Says Boyle, "If the recession lasts for all of 2009 and the weakness persists in many of the major radio ad categories, such as auto, to a point where spending severely plunges, then it may be 2010 or beyond before radio revives."
Boyle also makes his usual comparison of small-market to larger-market radio, saying that the smaller markets have done better in 19 of the last 20 months according to CL King's analysis of 45-50 markets. Over that time, the average small radio market has grown revenue by 0.6 percent a month, while the average large market has seen radio fall by 4 percent per month. Boyle writes, "Ironically, a few large radio groups have been or are selling off their relatively smaller market stations to rationalize their giant platforms, which might be a plus for all involved."
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