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Analyst: Revenue Declines Never So Widespread
NEW YORK -- September 23, 2008: The RAB reported that radio revenues fell 11 percent in August, but CL King & Associates analyst Jim Boyle says the news behind the headline was even worse. "The breadth of decline," he writes, "spread to a discouraging 40 out of 43 markets' data we've garnered so far. It has never been so broadly negative."
Boyle says that in August 2007, about 50 percent of markets were down, while in August 2008, almost 95 percent of markets were down year-over-year. Meanwhile, in the first seven months of the year, he's seen at least 35 down markets in a data sample of 45 -- about 78 percent, while in 2007, the average breadth of down markets was just over 45 percent. "This trend is troubling," he writes.
The bad August may turn out to be a fluke, Boyle says -- but continues, "Then again, perhaps not, if one considers the 16 consecutive negative months plus six out of the eight months in 2008 to date were off anywhere from negative 6 percent to negative 11 percent revenue for the radio industry year-over-year. "
But CL King's proprietary analysis shows that small-market radio is still surpassing the larger markets, with an average small radio market growing its revenue by 1.1 percent a month over the last 18 months, while the average large market has seen revenue fall by 3.6 percent a month.
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