NEW YORK -- January 4, 2008: Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby says November's 6 percent year-over-year decline in radio-industry revenue was "worse than expected" and has dropped his December estimate to down 4 percent from down 1 percent.
Jacoby altered his December projection even though he says radio will face easier comps for that month than it did in November.
"Our checks continue to indicate that business was sluggish through the end of 2007," Jacoby writes, "and will continue into early 2008." He estimates a 3 percent decline in radio revenues in the first quarter of this year and adds, "Upside potential to our estimate is from political, but political has yet to be a factor for radio."
In the longer term, Jacoby is concerned about the bill now pending in Congress to impose a performance royalty on radio. The royalty, Jacoby says, "probably won't be a 2008 event, but appears to be inevitable from our checks with our D.C. contacts."
