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Radio Revenues Down 7 Percent In September
DALLAS -- November 5, 2007: Radio revenues overall were off 7 percent in September, the RAB reported Monday, with local down 7 percent and national declining 9 percent compared to September 2006. It's a sharp decline compared to August's and July's 1 percent revenue drops and a 3 percent dip in June.
Nonspot revenue was again a bright spot in September, with a 9 percent gain for the month. That continues a trend: In August, nonspot revenue grew 11 percent, in July, it was up 6 percent, and in June, nonspot rose by 14 percent.
RAB revenue reports are based on a pool of more than 150 markets as reported by Miller, Kaplan, Arase & Co.
Wachovia analyst Marci Ryvicker said the revenue figures for September were "much uglier than expected," and with a number of big companies releasing their Q3 2007 earnings results this week, she said the decline "does not bode well for earnings -- especially for large-market radio."
After noting that "small-market radio groups are still performing much better than their large-market peers," Ryvicker wrote, "large-market radio groups, such as [Radio One], [Entercom], and even [Citadel] (with exposure to major markets via the ABC acquisitions) are at the greatest risk of missing guidance and investor expectations when they announce Q3 results this week." Radio One is set to release its Q3 results Tuesday, while Entercom and Citadel will release their numbers Friday morning.
Ryvicker has reduced her radio-industry estimates to down 3 percent for Q4 2007 and down 1.7 percent for the full year. She's predicting that October and November revenue will be down 4 percent, citing difficult comparisons, and that December will be off 2 percent.
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