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Ryvicker: Radio Looking "Flattish" In Q2

7-26-2012

It wasn't too long ago the industry was hopeful a big political year would start a revenue resurgence for radio. It appears, buoyed by the Olympics and political spending, TV is getting more of a lift than radio. We'll soon get a good feel for the first half of 2012 as earnings season is now upon us. Journal reports today, Beasley tomorrow, followed by Clear Channel, Radio One, and Entercom next week. Early indications have the month of June looking like a downer.

Wells Fargo analyst Marci Ryvicker says from her conversations with operators that they saw "deep deceleration toward the end of June, bringing their revenue down year over year." In a recent research report, Ryvicker added, "We heard very divergent pacings from radio groups, but almost all would agree that June felt a slowdown. The stocks appear cheap and we think there is room for shareholder returns but the macro is an overhang."

It will be interesting to hear what Radio One CEO Alfred Liggins has to say when he reports one week from today. When he last reported to Wall Street, Liggins said May revenue was pacing "off the charts." But in June he told all Radio One employees there would be no raises for the year. Radio One changed several formats in 2011 and Liggins, who took over the Radio division when Barry Mayo left, is expecting those formats to produce this year.  Radio One reports second quarter results, Thursday, August 2 at 10 a.m.

In addition to the Journal conference call today at 10 a.m., here are when other public companies will be hosting earnings conference calls:

-- Beasley reports Friday, August 27 at 11 a.m.

-- Clear Channel reports Wednesday, August 1 at 4:30 p.m.

-- Entercom reports Friday August 3 at 10 a.m.

-- Salem reports Monday, August 6 at 5 p.m.

-- Saga reports Tuesday, August 7 at 2 p.m.

Emmis has already reported. Revenue was up slightly for the company.

 




(7/26/2012 8:31:09 AM)
Here's some investment advice that Wells Fargo may or may not give: Don't invest in broadcast companies or stocks. Whether they're "flattish" or up or down a percent or two - stay away. Flattish is probably a success for these companies.

- Jan Bruce

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