BIA/Kelsey Forecasting Huge Digital Gains in 2012
In its newly released U.S. Local Media Forecas, BIA/Kelsey forecasts local online/interactive/digital advertising revenue will grow 13.1 percent in 2012. BIA/Kelsey VP and Chief Economist Mark Fratrik says, "We continue to see a dramatic increase in spending on online media and it is fundamentally changing the media planning and buying process for advertisers."
According to the forecast, several local media segments are on target to exceed this overall growth rate, such as mobile search, which will grow 77.2 percent. Online video will grow 51.6 percent and social will grow 26.3 percent. For some media, like newspapers, digital ad revenues will be the only source of growth.
Fratrik says, "We continue to see a dramatic increase in spending on online media and it is fundamentally changing the media planning and buying process for advertisers. As businesses examine their advertising opportunities, the trend is moving toward building a coordinated ad plan across different platforms, with different messages across different media. With traditional media getting more than three-quarters of the total local media ad budget, coordination between traditional and online media is the best way to explore how to effectively optimize new media, such as social networks and online video, to increase the chance of achieving business goals."
According to the forecast, the growth in different local media segments will drive an overall increase making digital over 25 percent of the local ad market. CAGRs for the forecast period, 2011-2016, for digital/interactive revenues in key media segments are as follows: newspapers – online revenues: 5.0 percent; radio – online revenues: 11.8 percent; television – online revenues: 12.8 percent; digital out of home: 11.7 percent; online: 9.4 percent; mobile: 44.9 percent; Internet Yellow Pages: 12.5 percent; email, reputation and presence management: 14.9 percent; social media: 21.0 percent; and online video: 36.7 percent.
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