Wide Range Of Topics At Forecast '10
December 8, 2009: Radio Ink's Forecast '10 was held Tuesday in New York, featuring a power-packed lineup that kicked off with opening remarks from CBS Radio President/CEO Dan Mason and closed with the annual "Leadership Speak Out" panel of radio group heads.
After Mason's opening remarks on the state of the industry, covering the need for radio to remain local, continue to build stars, and invest in the future, Katz Media Group CEO Stu Olds led the "Economic Forecasting: Revenue Expectations for 2010" panel, featuring M.E.D.I.Advisory Group Media Economist Jack Myers, Magna CFA/SVP Brian Wieser, and Standard & Poor's Chief Economist David Wyss looked at the economy in the year ahead.
The panelists saw generally positive signs for the end of the recession, but also pointed to reduced expectations. There was general agreement that radio must look ahead to build a business that's stable in the long term.
BMO Capital Markets Managing Director Lee Westerfield, a Forecast co-chair, moderated the next panel, on "Recapitalizing Radio: Funding & Investment Strategies in 2010." The panelists -- GSO Capital Partners Managing Director Richard Bilotti, Sugarloaf Rock Capital Managing Partner Drew Marcus, and Oaktree Capital Management SVP Andy Salter -- discussed debt levels in the radio industry, and when the deal market will revive. Digital is also considered to be critical to radio's growth -- if it can be enhanced without cannibalizing existing revenue streams. Satellite radio was also seen as a "niche product" -- but a potentially profitable one. The panelists were also hopeful that advertising will revive in the year ahead.
After keynotes from NAB President/CEO Gordon Smith and Borrell Associates CEO Gordon Borrell (see related stories), Broadcast Management & Technology President/CEO Jay Meyers led a panel on "Radio Station Assets and Operations: A Look at the Broker Market and Optimizing Stick Values During the Restructuring of Radio."
Panelists SNL Kagan Sr. Analyst Robin Flynn, BIA/Kelsey VP Mark Fratrik, Halperin Battaglia Raicht Partner Alan Halperin, and Patrick Communications Managing Partner Larry Patrick agreed that the deal market has been so slow that it's difficult to make many generalizations, though Alpha Broadcasting's purchase of the CBS Radio stations in Portland, OR, was cited as a benchmark deal since it involved two healthy companies.
When it comes to dealing with potential financial trouble ahead, or even default, all the panelists agreed that it is critically important to keep lenders informed of what's going on, and to be scrupulously honest in communicating with debt holders.
After the presentation of the Medallas de Cortez Lifetime Achievement Award to Caballero Spanish Media founder Eduardo Caballero and a lunchtime keynote from Compass Media "Market Score Board With Ron Insana" host Ron Insana, Regent Communications President/CEO Bill Stakelin -- a Forecast co-chair -- led what he called the "working stiffs' panel" of smaller-market operators. Panelists for the "Independent & Optimistic" discussion were GAP Broadcasting President George Laughlin, Commonwealth Broadcasting President/CEO Steve Newberry, and Maverick Media President/CEO Gary Rozynek.
The focus was on the differences between smaller-market radio and the large markets, including less dependence on national radio that has protected smaller markets to some degree from the fluctuations in radio. Also cited were the ability to communicate directly with advertisers and see the results of campaigns -- or lack thereof -- right away. Relationships and results were mentioned by the panelists.
After a keynote by Citadel Media's Mike Huckabee (see related stories), RAB President/CEO Jeff Haley led the "Client Perspective: What Radio Needs to Know About 2010 Expectations" panel, where the tone was cautiously optimistic. TargetCast tcm President/CEO Steve Farella; Velocity Marketing President and Campbell-Ewald EVP Dan Fletcher; New York Life Corporate VP/Advertising Director Christopher Sorgie; and MediaEdge Director/Radio Kim Vasey, sitting in for Macy's Marketing VP/Broadcast & Branded Entertainment Lisa Follo.
The need for advertisers to convey trustworthiness was one theme, with hope that consumers are gradually returning to spending. The panelists agreed that making the best use of media is a top priority, noting that the opportunities with radio may lie outside the traditional "spots and dots" approach.
Norstar Media Entertainment then led the "Radio's New Digital Frontier: What Radio Needs To Become To Capture New Media Revenues" panel, with Ando Media CMO Patrick Reynolds and Neo@Ogilvy COO Greg Smith. The conversation focused on localism and the need for radio to think more like media and marketing companies.
Radio advertising legend Bill Burton was then presented with the Radio Ink Lifetime Leadership Award, to an enthusiastic reception from the crowd.
The day closed with the annual "Leadership Speak Out" group heads' panel, moderated by Sugarloaf Rock Capital Managing Partner Drew Marcus. On the panel were Cumulus Media President/CEO Lew Dickey, Entercom President/CEO David Field, Greater Media President/CEO Peter Smyth, and Emmis Chairman/CEO Jeff Smulyan, and ICBC Broadcast Holdings President/COO Charles Warfield.
In the wide-ranging conversation, the executives expressed generally positive expectations for next year, with Marcus citing reports that many top advertisers are looking to increase spending in 2010. One focus of the conversation was on the need for radio to gain and stick to pricing discipline, and to empower people at the market and station levels to say no to unreasonable offers. The panelists also noted that radio has retained its audience better than anyone could have predicted in the face of greatly increased competition, but it has to overcome a perceptual problem among advertisers.
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